Robust Analysis of Uncertain Dynamic Systems: Combination of the Centre Manifold and Polynomial Chaos theories

A new methodology for a robust analysis of uncertain nonlinear dynamic systems is presented in this paper. The originality of the method proposed lies in the combination of the centre manifold theory with the polynomial chaos approach. The first one is known to be a powerful tool for model reduction of nonlinear dynamic systems in the neighbourhood of the Hopf bifurcation point while the polynomial chaos approach is an efficient tool for uncertainty propagation. Therefore, to couple the two methods can help to overcome computational difficulties due to both the complexity of nonlinear dynamic systems and the cost of the uncertainty propagation with the prohibitive Monte Carlo method. The feasibility and efficiency of the proposed methodology is investigated. So, a two degree of freedom model describing a drum brake system subject to uncertain initial conditions is considered. Key-Words: Nonlinear dynamic System, Model Reduction, Centre Manifold, Robust Analysis, Uncertainty Propagation, Polynomial chaos, Non-intrusive methods.